El Niño is an abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific's surface waters that reshapes the jet stream and, with it, storm tracks across the entire northern hemisphere. Since June 2026, that warming has already topped 2°C above normal. It could become the strongest ever measured. For skiers in Quebec and Western Canada, that means one thing: this winter won't follow the usual calendar.
Bill Merryfield, a scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, doesn't mince words: "Both observations and forecasts are pointing toward an extraordinary El Niño event... forecasts give a near certainty of the Niño-3.4 index exceeding 2°C ('very strong'), with some ensemble members including from ECCC approaching or exceeding 4°C, which would be unprecedented in the modern record by a substantial margin." Weekly Niño-3.4 readings are already sitting around 1.8°C, and current odds put a 69% chance of topping 2.5°C by late fall, which would surpass the historical benchmarks of 1997-98 and 2015-16. The closest recent analog: the 2023-24 winter.
An Atmospheric Player That Won't Follow the Rulebook
Doug Gillham, The Weather Network's chief forecaster, put it plainly in Canadian media coverage (translated from French): "an atmospheric player of this intensity inevitably brings unexpected consequences."
No need for widespread panic, though. Aaron Levine, an ENSO researcher at the University of Washington, explains the mechanism with a simple image: "if you throw a rock into a lake, you would see ripples coming out from where the rock landed." El Niño works the same way. A signal that starts at the equator and travels, weakening and bending, all the way into our mountains. His advice: watch out for the media hype. A record signal in the Pacific doesn't automatically translate into a record winter on the ground.
Quebec: A Longer Fall, an Uncertain Winter
André Monette, chief meteorologist at MétéoMédia (translated from French), sees mildness ahead above all: "El Niño's real footprint will mostly show up in November, with prolonged mild weather." In practice, that means a slower start to the season than usual, with more freezing rain than snow in the early weeks.
But before assuming the season is a write-off, here's a number worth keeping in mind: comparing ten stations across Quebec during the three strongest El Niño winters on record, snowfall ranged from 49% to 113% of normal depending on the station. Too wide a spread to predict anything with confidence. A record El Niño doesn't mean a record winter, in either direction.
Altitude Is Your Best Protection Out West
In British Columbia and Alberta, the general trend leans warmer and drier. Alan Smith, a meteorologist with OpenSnow, confirms it, while pointing out that it's statistically rare to string together two bad seasons in a row.
But the real story is about elevation. At Whistler, mid-mountain at 1,835 m, snowfall came in at 107%, 100%, and 124% of median during the three strongest El Niño winters on record. The village, at 675 m, sits right in the elevation band most exposed to warming. Same logic in the Rockies, where higher-elevation resorts like Banff Sunshine, Lake Louise, and Marmot Basin fare better against rain risk than lower-lying areas. Snowthere, which compiled these numbers, sums it up in one line: "the effect lives below the skiing."
Lilianne Lambert, a CMH mountain guide, sums up the uncertainty hanging over elevation this year: "Looking at all the forecasts, I'm predicting that El Niño will bring good precipitation with warmer temperatures. For example, it'll snow a lot above 1,500 m, but rain below 1,500 m all the way to the valley bottom. That'll actually be good for the glaciers to get a solid amount of snow! My tip for the winter: stay positive and follow the avalanche bulletin closely to keep a good handle on the snowpack through the weather fluctuations. Hopefully I'm wrong, and it snows all the way to the valley bottom so we can put the snowblower away and hit the Nordic tracks."
Frequently Asked Questions
Will El Niño hurt the ski season in Quebec this winter? Not necessarily. Historical data across ten Quebec stations shows too much variation (49% to 113% of normal) to predict a bad season with any confidence. What's more certain: a milder fall and a possibly delayed start to the season.
Which Western Canadian resorts will be least affected? High-elevation areas. Whistler's mid-mountain and resorts like Banff Sunshine, Lake Louise, and Marmot Basin have historically held up better than lower-elevation zones during strong El Niño winters.
What exactly is a Super El Niño? An El Niño event where the Niño-3.4 index far exceeds the 2°C threshold associated with a "very strong" El Niño. The 2026-27 event could approach or exceed 4°C, which would be unprecedented since modern record-keeping began.
The Bottom Line
The only certainty this winter is uncertainty. A slower start out east, a season that'll be won or lost at altitude out west, and probabilities instead of promises everywhere else. That's exactly the kind of winter where engineering makes the difference: our skis are built to stay playful and versatile from bare ice to deep powder, in the same run. This year, they're going to need it. So are you.